Given the revival in house prices and recent falls in mortgage rates, we are raising our Q4 2024 house price growth forecast from 1.0% y/y to 2.0%. We now think that the number of housing transactions per year will increase from 1.02m in 2023 to 1.07m in 2024 (1.06m previously). And we expect the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase to rise from 649,000 in Q2 to 720,000 in Q4 (700,000 previously).
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