UK Housing Market Update What’s really happening with new build house prices? The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) November house price data release indicates unusually large increases in new build house prices in recent months. We suspect that this reported rise does not... 12th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2024) November’s RICS survey provides further evidence that housing activity and prices remained resilient to the rise in mortgage rates in November. And our view that mortgage rates will start to fall... 12th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Are there enough workers to build 300,000 homes a year? Even if the government’s easing of planning rules were to mean that at least 300,000 new home approvals in England were granted a year, the number of construction workers would need to rise... 26th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Slower rate cuts won’t prevent solid house price gains Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2024) October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Budget not a game-changer for the housing market The policies announced in yesterday’s Budget won’t have a significant bearing on the housing market. But the prospect that interest rates are a bit higher may soften demand and creates some downside... 31st October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Credit conditions still consistent with the economy growing The Bank of England’s Q3 Credit Conditions Survey suggests house prices will rise further in Q4 and supports our view that a mild slowdown in GDP growth this year is more likely than another recession... 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2024) Surge in supply ahead of Budget may temporarily dampen prices A leap in the number of homes being put up for sale in September, perhaps due to fears of second-homes and rented properties being subject... 10th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Should institutions be worried about Renters’ Rights? By making life harder for unscrupulous landlords, the Renters’ Rights Bill may help drive tenant demand toward institutional landlords who are already complying with most aspects of the proposed... 13th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug. 2024) Rising demand points to faster house price growth August’s RICS survey provided further evidence that housing demand is picking up in response to the recent falls in mortgage rates. What’s more, our... 12th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Recovery in mortgage lending has further to run Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Revising up our 2024 house price forecast Given the revival in house prices and recent falls in mortgage rates, we are raising our Q4 2024 house price growth forecast from 1.0% y/y to 2.0%. We now think that the number of housing transactions... 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2024) Increasing demand points to stronger price growth Tentative signs from July’s RICS survey add to the growing evidence that demand and prices are starting to pick up. And as lenders start to cut... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2024) Revival unlikely to materialise as soon as surveyors hope While demand continued to slip back in June, surveyors were optimistic it would soon pick up. Given elevated mortgage rates we suspect the... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
