Investors now think the first interest rate cut will happen in June next year instead of August, with an 80% chance of a cut by May. Our forecast is that the Bank of England won’t cut interest rates until late in 2024, later than the Fed (in March) and the ECB (in April). It makes sense that the Bank will be the last of this trio to cut rates. But there is a clear risk that the Bank won't be as far behind the Fed and the ECB as we expect.
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