The Bank of England kick-started a loosening cycle today by cutting interest rates from 5.25% to 5.00%, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest it will proceed cautiously. Accordingly, we suspect the Bank will keep rates on hold in September before proceeding with the next 25 basis point cut in November. And the risks to our forecast are tilted towards cuts being a bit slower and smaller than we currently expect.
We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England, ECB and Fed policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm BST today. (Register here.)
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