June’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that public borrowing is on track to come in a little higher than the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn. Admittedly, the OBR may grant the Chancellor a bit more wiggle room to loosen fiscal policy in an autumn fiscal event. But we doubt there will be much room to announce big changes on top of the £8bn increase in spending and equivalent rise in taxes outlined in Labour’s election manifesto.
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