The 0.2% m/m rise in real GDP in August followed July’s 0.6% m/m contraction and will raise hopes that the economy has escaped a recession this year. But the timelier measures of activity point to a contraction in GDP in September. (See here.) So we are sticking to our below-consensus forecast that the economy will shrink by 0.2% q/q in both Q3 and Q4.
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