The news that CPI inflation stayed at 8.7% in April (consensus 8.4%, BoE 8.3%) and that core CPI inflation rose again, from 6.8% to a new 31-year high of 7.1% (consensus 6.8%), will have been seen in advance by the Bank of England and increases the chances that the Bank raises interest rates by 50bps tomorrow rather than the 25bps rise from 4.50% to 4.75%. Either way, the acceleration in core inflation leaves the UK increasingly looking like the global outlier and the “stagflation nation”.
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