The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed forecasters are finally coming around to our long-held view that retail will preform relatively well over the next five years. Total returns for all the retail subsectors over 2024-28 saw significant upgrades, with retail warehouses seeing the largest rise from 8.3% p.a. in the May forecast round to 9.3% p.a. in September. At the all-property level the largest upgrade was to rental growth, although our call for a rise of 3.9% y/y in 2024 still puts us way ahead of the consensus view of a 2.9% increase.
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