UK Commercial Property Update Are clouds forming over the UK property investment outlook? With commercial property capital values stabilising and credit conditions easing, the stage was set for a decent recovery in investment this year. However, the recent rise in gilt yields has cast a... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Drop in foreign students a small risk for PBSA rents At first glance the 24% y/y drop in sponsored study visas in Q3 2024 spells bad news for PBSA rents. But the cause of that drop - new rules banning international students from bringing dependents -... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property returns to see another modest year Compared to our end-2023 forecasts, property yields look set to end 2024 a bit higher than we anticipated and rental growth stronger. Overall, that means our call for all-property total returns of... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Trump tariffs would drag on port-centric industrial hubs The incoming Trump administration is threatening to put new tariffs on European exports. In our view, given their limited macroeconomic impact, they will not be a game-changer for commercial property... 18th December 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What happens if gilt yields don’t fall back? Our forecast that commercial real estate is set for a modest recovery is dependent on our view that a decline in gilt yields will help stabilise property yields. But if interest rates don’t fall back... 11th December 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What’s keeping real estate investors awake at night? A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that... 9th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Takeaways from our Property in 2025 roundtables This week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for European commercial property. This Update outlines our thoughts on some of the most... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov. 24.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey was broadly unchanged from the previous forecast round. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be 7.7% p.a. over 2024-28, up from 7.6% p.a. previously... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent... 14th November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Has the Budget derailed the CRE recovery? We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Event CRE Drop-In: The residential outlook – Europe vs the US and the case for outperformance 1731423600 Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver?
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the capital value recovery? The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting... 22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update All signs point to capital value recovery Surveys of banks, developers and surveyors all point to a recovery in capital values over the next few months. As does the behaviour of investors. The strength of that recovery is more uncertain, with... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
