US Commercial Property Update

Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed

It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent...

14th November 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Has the Budget derailed the CRE recovery?

We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery

The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

‘Extend and pretend’ still ongoing for some banks

The NCREIF Q3 index posted a positive return for the first time in two years, with only offices recording a negative outturn. But with firmer evidence that poorly capitalized banks have been less...

28th October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 24)

Capital values are now recovering and, notwithstanding a recent rise in interest rates, will continue to do so. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Apartment performance to top consensus estimates

Upward revisions by the ULI consensus mean our forecasts remain more downbeat over the next couple of years. However, this is largely down to our weaker view on industrial, while our forecasts for the...

21st October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

All signs point to capital value recovery

Surveys of banks, developers and surveyors all point to a recovery in capital values over the next few months. As does the behaviour of investors. The strength of that recovery is more uncertain, with...

16th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate...

10th October 2024 · 14 mins read

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

Miami apartment market to feel the heat over 2025-28

Apartment markets are turning a corner, and we now expect the sector to outperform over the five year forecast. As new supply drops back from the second half of next year, we expect a mixture of...

1st October 2024 · 7 mins read

US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook

Houston rockets to the top of the office rankings

Offices are still in for a tough few years, with markets like San Francisco, LA and Seattle likely to come out of the downturn with values down 55% or more from their 2019 peaks. However, there are...

20th September 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 24)

Yields have now peaked in most sectors and capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past standards. Thanks to...

19th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Apartments to top the charts with total returns of 9.5% p.a.

There are tentative signs of improvement in the investment market, but we continue to think refinancing requirements will weigh on transactions. We still think appraisal-based valuations need to...

12th September 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Sep 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed forecasters are finally coming around to our long-held view that retail will preform relatively well over the next five years. Total returns for all the retail...

6th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Look to beds, sheds and retail for best returns

Commercial property yields and capital values have stabilised in recent months, which has encouraged investors to dip their toes back into the sector. But the recovery is set to be a weak one...

22nd August 2024 · 26 mins read

US Commercial Property Focus

Time to go shopping for retail assets

Retail real estate has faced a tough period, buffeted by the rise of e-commerce, extensive oversupply and the impacts of the pandemic on in-store shopping. But we think the sector is well down the...

20th August 2024 · 21 mins read