US Commercial Property Update Midwest outperformance will not last More encouraging figures from the previously underperforming Midwest region suggest that it may be turning a corner. But while this may continue for several quarters more, there has not been enough... 9th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Market chaos puts upward pressure on UK commercial property yields With the exception of some industrial assets, commercial property in the UK is not directly impacted by the higher tariffs announced by President Trump and property equities have performed relatively... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston best-placed for 2025-29 apartments recovery The apartment market is on track to recover over our five-year forecast, with new supply falling back sharply, while demand remains solid. However, the size and speed of recovery will differ widely by... 7th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe Commercial Property Outlook: Higher interest rates weaken the recovery Following upward revisions to our forecasts for policy rates and bond yields, we have raised our forecasts for prime property yields in Europe and now expect increases of around 20-25bps by the end of... 27th March 2025 · 28 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook US Office Metros Outlook: Southern metros set for clear outperformance The divergence between the struggling western metros and the better-performing southern metros remains the key story in office markets. That expectation is underpinned by both higher office... 25th March 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Mar. 25) Gilt yields should fall back this year, but with property looking somewhat overvalued we doubt that will trigger much in the way of yield compression. That means the recovery in all-property returns... 21st March 2025 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update PREA consensus forecasts still well above our US CRE returns The latest PREA consensus forecasts reveal a downward revision in total returns and capital value changes across most sectors, especially for offices and industrial. However, the consensus remains... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook US Commercial Property Outlook: Returns will be weighed down by “new normal” for bond yields Our new forecasts have been compiled in the most uncertain geoeconomic environment for a long time. But our firmly below-consensus expectations for US CRE are led by our view that nearly three years... 13th March 2025 · 20 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF UK Commercial Property Consensus Forecasts (Mar. 25.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey was broadly unchanged from the previous forecast round. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be 8.0% p.a. over 2025-29, with views ranging from a... 7th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The biggest cities will continue to underperform Five years ago, we were downbeat about the immediate prospects for the largest city real estate markets, the so-called gateways, and that view has proved correct. But we also argued that this malaise... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook UK Commercial Property Outlook: Weak economy to weigh on property recovery The economic outlook has worsened over the past couple of months, which supports our call that the recovery in commercial property will be modest by past standards. Admittedly, interest rates are set... 19th February 2025 · 26 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey supports our call of a modest UK commercial property recovery Concerns about the impact of the Budget, coupled with higher interest rates, led to a moderation in commercial property demand according to the Q4 RICS commercial survey. Capital value expectations... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q4 Index - Gap between US CRE appraisals and sales prices to close in 2025 The Q4 data suggest that appraisals are lagging the market correction, with transaction-based cap rates still significantly above those reported in the indices. Our expectation that this gap closes in... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jan. 25) The rise in gilt yields since the start of the year will weigh on transactions and put upward pressure on property yields over the next couple of months. But we still think risk-free interest rates... 22nd January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2024) 2024 likely marked the bottom in all-property values in Europe, but we expect further falls in the US in 2025. That said, US performance should improve further ahead, outpacing the euro-zone over the... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Sales slump to drag into 2025 The potentially inflationary policy mix of the incoming Trump administration will limit the decline in mortgage rates this year, squashing hopes for a major recovery in home sales. We expect... 8th January 2025 · 14 mins read
