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We still expect Ueda to spring a surprise next week

Press reports suggest that the Bank of Japan will predict inflation of 2% two years ahead at next week's meeting, which would suggest that the Bank is closer than ever to meeting its inflation target on a sustained basis. Other reports suggest that the Bank is still dithering on whether to tighten policy, but we still think that Ueda will spring a surprise by ending Yield Curve Control next week.

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