Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: January rate hike now looking likely A flurry of communication by the Bank of Japan this week suggests that a rate hike at next week's meeting is very likely. And whereas the financial markets foresee just one additional 25bp rate hike... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Case for tighter policy remains intact Wage growth continues to accelerate and all signs point to this year's Shunto delivering another strong pay hike. However, the Bank of Japan wants to see more clarity on US economic policy and we... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ still signalling room – and desire – to hike further Governor Ueda delivered two messages in the press conference after yesterday’s policy meeting: first, the Bank of Japan thinks that policy normalisation is still on track and it intends to raise rates... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tankan adds to case for December hike We’re in a minority of analysts expecting the Bank of Japan to hike rates next week. But the ongoing labour shortages and strength of output price pressures flagged in today’s Tankan have only made a... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan: December rate hike still looking more likely than not Conflicting messages by the Bank of Japan have once again left the outcome of the Bank's December meeting wide open, but on balance we're sticking to our forecast of another rate hike in a couple of... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates further to 1.25% by 2026 The pick-up in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo in November points to the nationwide measure rising further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. With the yen set to remain weak for... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upcoming Shunto will result in bigger pay hikes The stars are aligning for our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again by year-end. And with a recent survey of Japanese firms pointing to even bigger pay hikes in next year's... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Markets starting to anticipate December rate hike The financial markets have finally come around to our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates once more before year-end. With domestic economic data mixed, that probably reflects the... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak yen strengthens case for year-end rate hike The policies proposed by Donald Trump may well end up providing a small net boost to Japan’s economy. While higher tariffs will result in a small fall in export volumes, it now seems likely that the... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Political vacuum won’t deter year-end rate hike It now looks likely that the existing LDP/Komeito coalition will remain in power via a partial alliance with the Democratic Party for the People. While there's a risk that the DPP demands policy... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Election nailbiter Polls suggest that Japan’s ruling party, the LDP, could lose its Lower House majority on Sunday for the first time since its brief stint out of power ended in 2012. As long as it was still able to... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ishiba trying to shore up support ahead of election PM Ishiba has signaled that this year’s supplementary budget will be larger than last year’s. That’s largely motivated by concerns that the LDP won’t do well in next week’s Lower House elections... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong household finances underpinning consumption The strength in household incomes poses some upside risks to our GDP forecasts. However, a more forceful recovery in domestic demand won't move the needle much in terms of inflationary pressures. In... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government won’t prevent further rate hikes The Q3 Tankan was strong across the board and strengthens the case for another rate hike. While the political noise coming out of Tokyo suggests that the BoJ will keep policy unchanged at its meeting... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ishiba victory will be greeted with relief by BoJ While Sanae Takaichi's defeat in this week's LDP leadership elections means that Japan won't have its first female Prime Minister after all, Shigeru Ishiba's victory will almost certainly be welcome... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Japan have its first female prime minister? Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi is seen as the most suitable candidate for Prime Minister, though the race remains wide open. While she has opposed any policy tightening by the Bank of Japan... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
