Our base case is that the LDP/Komeito coalition will be able to push through major pieces of legislation, including a supplementary budget by year-end, with only minor concessions to the Democratic Party for the People. If the DPP insists on its radical fiscal policy proposals, we doubt that the LDP would yield, but there’s a risk that lengthy negotiations would delay the passage of upcoming budgets and prompt the Bank of Japan to hike rates only next year.
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