Japan Economics Update Higher bond yields not a threat to fiscal health yet We aren’t overly worried about the impact of higher bond yields on Japan’s public finances because rising interest rates are a direct consequence of higher inflation. With the effective interest rate... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ taking its time but will speed up tightening in 2025 The Bank of Japan's decision to leave rates on hold for a third consecutive meeting was not a great surprise. But in the post-meeting press conference Governor Ueda sounded in no hurry at all to... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for Japan’s financial markets We now think the 10-year JGB yield will rise further, the yen will make more ground against the US dollar, and Japan’s equities will struggle to make much headway (in yen terms). 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update How much power will the DPP have? Our base case is that the LDP/Komeito coalition will be able to push through major pieces of legislation, including a supplementary budget by year-end, with only minor concessions to the Democratic... 13th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ opens door to another rate hike BoJ Governor Ueda sounded more optimistic today and we’re sticking to our forecast of another rate hike at the Bank’s next meeting in December, though we don’t expect further tightening in 2025. 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yen could weigh further on the TOPIX We argued last year that the relative strength of Japan’s stock market mostly reflected the weak yen rather than a fundamental transformation of its corporate sector. Developments since then suggest... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tourism industry still struggling Despite the surge in foreign visitors, Japan’s tourism industry is still struggling as domestic tourists have slashed holiday spending in the face of plunging real incomes. 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Incoming PM unlikely to veto further rate hikes The government tried to prevent the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates in 2000 but that attempt was unsuccessful and the government has respected the Bank’s independence ever since. Renewed... 24th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates once more in December The Bank of Japan today signalled that it’s in no rush to tighten monetary policy any further and we’re pushing back our forecast for a final rate hike to 0.5% from October to December. 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Producer price inflation set to slow further The persistent strength in producer price inflation probably still mostly reflects the lagged influence of the surge in import costs rather than any pick-up in wage growth. If the yen keeps... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Kishida’s resignation won’t affect economic outlook Prime Minister Kishida’s resignation is hardly a surprise. At this stage, it’s very difficult to predict who will succeed him and the ruling LDP will probably remain in power for the foreseeable... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update The financial stability risks from recent market moves Even though it’s difficult to identify what could have broken as a result of the recent rapid market moves, a stronger yen is a bigger threat to the health of Japan’s financial institutions than... 7th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update FX intervention to weaken yen unlikely Japan’s government has intervened in the FX markets to weaken the yen far more often than to strengthen it. But FX interventions have become very rare over the past two decades and our sense is that... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
