Reforms on the back burner, mobile tariff hikes

Reforms on the back burner, mobile tariff hikes

With key state elections coming onto the horizon, we doubt that any contentious economic reforms will be implemented during the winter session of parliament, which kicks off next week. Meanwhile, the mobile tariff hikes announced by telecoms firms this week will add to inflationary pressure. But we don't think that will spring the RBI into immediate action.     Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report
Shilan Shah Senior India Economist
Continue reading

More from India

India Economics Weekly

There is policy space to cushion any Omicron blow

Low vaccine coverage makes India's economy highly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. The crumb of comfort is that there is policy space to soften some of the economic blow from a new outbreak. The fiscal position is healthier than usual for this time of year. Meanwhile, the RBI is likely to keep rates on hold in the MPC meeting next week and for a few more months beyond that.

3 December 2021

India Data Response

Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in November suggests that the recovery is still ongoing, although it appears that global supply shortages have remained a drag. And with vaccination coverage in India still low, the threat of new virus outbreaks – either of the Omicron variant or potential successors – will continue to loom. Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

1 December 2021

RBI Watch

MPC to hold rates in face of Omicron uncertainty

Whereas many EM central banks have been hiking rates aggressively, the RBI has been taking only baby steps towards policy tightening over the past couple of months. And the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant only reinforces our view that it will continue to move very cautiously. In all, we think the MPC will announce further small measures to drain liquidity from the banking sector at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday 8th December as it continues to lay the groundwork for policy rate hikes from mid-2022.   Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

1 December 2021

More from Shilan Shah

India Economics Weekly

Sitharaman pleads, Das reassures

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week made an impassioned plea for the private sector to ramp up investment to support the economic recovery, but we don’t think that firms will heed her call. Meanwhile, comments from RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das support our view that policy tightening will proceed very gradually and that rate hikes won’t come onto the agenda for several more months yet.

19 November 2021

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Turkey and EM contagion risks

The latest crisis engulfing Turkey is likely to make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may cause wobbles in a few EM currencies, but there are reasons to think that any financial contagion will be much more limited than during Turkey’s 2018 crisis.

18 November 2021

India Economics Focus

How much scarring will the pandemic leave?

The pandemic’s most significant economic legacy in India will be a heavily-damaged banking sector that is likely to constrain investment over the years ahead. This underpins our view that the economy could be 5% smaller over the long run than it would have been had the pandemic not happened. In view of the wider interest, we have also made this publication available to clients of our Long Run service.

17 November 2021
↑ Back to top