Two key uncertainties for India from Trump's second term - the size and scope of tariffs and the future of the H-1B visa scheme - are no closer to being cleared up. We continue to assume a 10% universal tariff on US imports, which would have only a small direct impact on Indian exports. Meanwhile, Trump appears to have softened his previous hostile stance towards the H-1B visa scheme, but if restrictions were tightened it would weaken remittance flows and put the rupee under more pressure.
Note: We'll be discussing the upcoming Union Budget and RBI meeting and taking your questions in an online briefing on Tuesday 28th January at 09:00 GMT/14:30 IST. Sign up here.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services