Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Prices, population and politics The stronger-than-expected rebound in inflation in February and sharp rise in firms’ selling price expectations this month complicates things for the Bank of Canada in its attempts to combat inflation... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Net migration to slow further, supporting disinflation We learned this week that Australia's population growth continued to slow in Q3 2024, as net migration flows eased significantly. We believe that concerns about a potential resurgence in international... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Jump in Korea’s fertility rate, Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Figures published earlier this week showed the fertility rate in Korea increased last year for the first time in nine years. However, we think this was mainly due to a post-COVID rebound in marriages... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Demographic crisis worsening as births keep falling Japan is now recording more than twice as many deaths as births, with that ratio only surpassed in war-ravaged Ukraine and celibate Holy See. While the number of employed people nonetheless hit a... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia & Ukraine: mapping out a post-war future An end to the war in Ukraine would fundamentally change the economic outlook for Russia and Ukraine, but a lot would depend on the nature of any peace agreement. A deal that involves large-scale... 27th February 2025 · 26 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Outlook – The global economic order post-Trump 1741705200 Imagine a world after Donald Trump. The returned president’s rapidly unfolding policy agenda will have bearing on the US and global economies in the near-term.
China Economics Weekly More support for developers, while marriages plunge The decline in the number of marriages in China that was revealed this week isn’t just due to there being fewer eligible people. The rate at which young adults are marrying has halved over the past... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Looking for clarity on Trump tariffs and H-1B visas Two key uncertainties for India from Trump's second term - the size and scope of tariffs and the future of the H-1B visa scheme - are no closer to being cleared up. We continue to assume a 10%... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US tightens export controls, births rise The final export control measures of Joe Biden's presidency further restrict China's access to advanced AI technology and mark another escalation in geopolitical fragmentation. Meanwhile, although... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Immigration curbs a key downside risk to DM growth Immigration has probably added around 0.6%-pts to GDP growth per year on average across advanced economies since the pandemic. But tighter restrictions on immigration will weigh heavily on GDP growth... 16th December 2024 · 29 mins read
US Economics Focus Counting the cost of a crackdown on immigration The incoming Trump administration’s proposed crackdown on immigration means labour force growth is likely to slow toward zero. That would pull down potential GDP growth to less than 2% and labour... 4th December 2024 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do Trump’s immigration plans mean for EMs? US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to curb immigration and undertake a mass deportation of undocumented migrants could boost labour supply in countries that are the source of migrants. But there... 18th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What does a declining population mean for Canada? The government’s plan to trim the population will hit potential GDP growth and, given the headwinds for residential investment, reduce the chance of GDP reaching that lower potential level. Rents on... 31st October 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New immigration targets a headache for the Bank Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by a larger 50bp this week, the Bank of Canada outlined a set of positive economic forecasts, partly because it expects residential investment growth to... 25th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population decline will drag down GDP growth The government’s new immigration plan implies that the population will decline by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, a huge shift from population growth of almost 3% over the past two years. That means GDP... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
