In light of the latest activity data, we’ve made slight downward revisions to our GDP growth forecasts for India – we now think the economy will grow by 6.5% in 2024 (our previous forecast was 7.0%) and by 6.0% in 2025 (previously 6.5%). In terms of the policy implications, it was notable this week that Governor Shaktikanta defended the RBI’s more upbeat forecasts, which would suggest that an October rate cut is still very unlikely. But we suspect that further signs of a cooling in growth will nudge the MPC towards a rate cut in the December meeting.
What will the US election mean for the Asia growth outlook? Will China’s economy overtake the US? Will India fulfil its growth potential? We’re tackling these issues and more in our Asia roundtable in London on Tuesday, 24th September. If you’d like to attend, click here.
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