Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The latest data point to some divergence in GDP growth in major economies in Q2. On the one hand, the latest PMI surveys suggest that economic activity continued to gain momentum in Europe. But in China, GDP growth slowed in Q2. And in the US, the further deterioration in consumer confidence in July points to a slowdown in consumer spending. Altogether, the latest data haven’t altered our view that global growth will be slightly below trend in 2024. Meanwhile, although services inflation remains sticky in DMs, it is now showing clear signs of slowing in the US. We still expect inflation to gradually fall to central bank targets in most DMs around the turn of the year. In anticipation of this, we expect the Bank of England and the Fed to join the ECB in cutting interest rates within the next couple of months.
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