The environment of higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar that we think will accompany a second Trump administration is one that, historically, has been associated with crises in EMs with large macro imbalances. The good news is that currency crisis risks now look low across much of the emerging world. But there are pockets of vulnerability. Turkey, Ethiopia, Argentina and Tunisia look exposed to large currency falls. In the latter two, high levels of FX debt also heightens the risk of a sovereign default.
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