Russia’s election: social redistribution in focus

A victory for United Russia in the Duma elections this week will strengthen the government’s recent focus on state intervention in the economy. Social redistribution has become a key priority for the government and large businesses may end up paying for part of this. Longer-term, it reinforces our downbeat view on Russia’s medium-term growth prospects.
Liam Peach Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Data Response

Israel Consumer Prices (Aug.)

The rise in Israeli inflation to an 8-year high of 2.2% y/y in August was partly driven by a chunky rise in housing costs, but there are signs that “re-opening inflation” in services has run its course. We think inflation will fall towards 1% next year and that the central bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates.

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The Poland-EU dispute over the rule of law reached a breaking point this week and raises the threat of potential fines and a significant delay to receiving EU recovery funds, dimming an otherwise positive economic outlook. Meanwhile, fiscal policy looks like it will provide a slightly bigger boost to growth in Russia than we had expected over the next year, but we do not think this will threaten the government's long-standing aim for macro stability. Finally, developments over the past week suggest that officials in Turkey are taking their eye off inflation and preparing the ground for an interest rate cut.
CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.

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