The political reshuffle in Russia this week, in which Putin replaced the defence minister and gave more responsibility to a number of ministers in charge of the economy, suggests a greater focus on managing the growing trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and macroeconomic stability on the other. Meanwhile, the US import tariffs announced on Chinese EVs and lithium-ion batteries this week could create a gap for other suppliers to step in. That could provide a boost to Poland and Hungary, but we suspect it's likely to be small.
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