China Economics Update Reciprocal tariffs underscore Trump threat for China China is among a minority of countries that apply lower tariff rates on the US than vice versa, so it is not as obviously exposed to reciprocal tariffs as many others. But President Trump’s latest... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China adds to export controls in a bid to pressure US China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Chinese retailers to suffer under Trump’s trade policies The end of the de minimis tariff exemption for US imports of low-value goods from China will be a major blow to Chinese e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein. They’re likely to lose market share to... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China gets off lightly on tariffs, for now The additional 10% tariff that Donald Trump has applied on Chinese goods will have a relatively modest impact on China’s economy, especially if the PBOC allows the renminbi to adjust. But this is... 3rd February 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Is China overtaking in AI? DeepSeek’s success in developing AI models that rival those of US tech-giants has rattled US markets. While this does suggest that catching up to the technological frontier in AI may be easier than... 30th January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China ramping up use of export controls The raft of export restrictions introduced earlier this month are the latest escalation in China’s shift to a more assertive export control regime. The use of such non-tariff measures is likely to... 27th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Bonds Update Chinese bonds – is there any alternative? We think China’s 10-year government bond yield will fall to fresh record lows over the coming year, partly because the other investment options available to Chinese investors look increasingly... 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Debt swap a band-aid for China’s fiscal challenges The debt swap that kicked off in November and extends to 2028 reduces the risk of near-term defaults by local government financing vehicles, which would be destabilising for financial markets. But it... 15th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s appetite for gold will support prices in 2025 Given the deterioration in the outlook for Chinese equities and the prospect of a markedly weaker renminbi, China’s demand for gold in 2025 will be stronger than we had previously expected. In turn... 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s dovish policy shift may not be enough The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference provides more detailed forward guidance on plans to adopt a more supportive policy stance next year – there will be more rate cuts and a... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025? 1732719600 An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.
China Economics Update What happened to the fiscal stimulus? Today’s fiscal announcement was far smaller and less detailed than many had hoped for. The explanation, we think, is that China’s leadership sees less need for stimulus than most commentators (we’re... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The... 7th November 2024 · 6 mins read
