Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau Jr.’s turn for a “walk in the snow” Forty years on from his father famously resigning as Prime Minister following a solo walk through an Ottawa snowstorm, reports suggest Justin Trudeau is mulling the same decision after a tumultuous... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Attention to shift from monetary to fiscal policy Following another large 50bp cut this week, the Bank of Canada confirmed that it will take a more gradual approach in 2025, in part due to the extra fiscal stimulus set to be confirmed by the... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Is this a ‘vibecovery’? Recent Bank of Canada communications have been keenly attuned to the downside risks to inflation and economic activity, concerns which seemed justified after last week’s disappointing GDP report... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump’s tariff threat highlights challenges ahead US President-elect Donald Trump's pledge this week to levy a 25% tariff on all products imported from Canada is clearly more of a bargaining tool than a genuine threat. But it does raise the risk that... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank likely to revert to 25bp cuts The recent stronger price and activity data, along with the announcement this week of a sales-tax break over the festive period and stimulus cheques to come next year, means we now think the Bank of... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada yet to shake off inflation risks The US election outcome means that Canada and the US will not be trading friendship bracelets anytime soon and leaves the risks to inflation more finely balanced, but we still think that growth... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump win creates headache for Bank of Canada This week's labour market data and Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's October policy meeting were both overshadowed by Trump's win in the US election given its potential impact on the... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft data strengthens case for another 50bp cut While there were some positives to take from this week’s GDP data release, it still points to an economy stuck in a period of below potential growth. This reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New immigration targets a headache for the Bank Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by a larger 50bp this week, the Bank of Canada outlined a set of positive economic forecasts, partly because it expects residential investment growth to... 25th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Week of soft data sets up 50bp cut A string of soft data releases this week should give the Bank of Canada the necessary confidence to step up the pace of monetary easing with a 50bp cut at its meeting next week. 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly October meeting will be a close call The stronger labour market data makes the Bank of Canada’s decision in October a close call but, with upside inflation risks fading, and demand still very weak, we think t he Bank will want to bring... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing still struggling Activity in the housing market and broader economy have been struggling for momentum and give little indication that excess supply is dissipating, suggesting that there is still a strong case for a... 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to favour a 50bp cut The upside surprise to GDP growth in July does not change the big picture that quarterly growth is likely to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada anticipated, while a host of other data releases... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly 50 is the new 25 The Summary of Deliberations from this month’s policy meeting showed policymakers at the Bank of Canada are increasingly concerned around the downside risks to inflation and activity. With growth set... 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank may not blink despite higher unemployment The communications from the Bank of Canada this week suggest that the rise in the unemployment rate in August is unlikely to be enough to trigger larger interest rate cuts, which is probably a sign... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
