China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan with stepped-up military drills. But any economic sanctions would almost certainly be small and spare the electronics sector. An opposition victory could lead to the rollback of some existing sanctions – the most important being those affecting tourism. But it wouldn’t bring the unification that Xi Jinping says is a “historical inevitability” closer and so wouldn’t lift the invasion threat that hangs over Taiwan and the global economy.
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