Asia Economics Update Who will be the next Vietnam? Vietnam has seen a surge in exports to the US in recent years and arguably emerged as the biggest winner of Trump’s first trade war with China. However, Vietnam’s huge bilateral trade surplus with the... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Indonesia taking a wrong turn under Prabowo? Prabowo Subianto came into office in Indonesia in October pledging to raise economic growth to 8%, up from around the 5% rate it has been stuck at recently. However, the policy changes he has... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing pick-up likely to be short lived The small uptick in the EM manufacturing PMI in February appears in part to be a result of the front-running of US tariffs, and is unlikely to be sustained. For now, the surveys continue to point to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia’s bond purchases could backfire Bank Indonesia now owns a larger share of government bonds than some DM central banks did at the height of their pandemic QE programmes. Amidst worries that the fiscal guardrails are coming off, BI’s... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India trip notes – Trump tariffs, the digital boom and data A week spent visiting clients, policymakers and contacts in India underlines that the digital economy is thriving, that there is hope that India will not be hit hard by Trump’s tariffs, and that much... 25th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: further easing coming The Bank of Korea today cut interest rates by a further 25bps (to 2.75%) and made clear that further easing is on the way. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to remain low, we are... 25th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia January PMIs, Korea Trade The January PMIs for Asia were generally weak, supporting our view that manufacturing activity and GDP growth in the region are likely to remain below trend in the near term. And with inflation back... 3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: the new sick man of Asia Thailand’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has not only been much weaker than that experienced in other parts of Asia, but also compared with past crises. The weakness of the economy is the key... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update The rise of the Indian tourist India’s outbound tourism market is poised to become one of the world’s largest over the coming years. The Maldives and the UAE are arguably the biggest beneficiaries, though Oman and Thailand are well... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation in Asia to stay low, easing cycle to continue Headline inflation in Asia has continued to ease over the past year and is now back to (or below) target everywhere. We expect inflation to remain subdued over the coming year as improved growing... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Could Vietnam find itself in Trump’s crosshairs? Vietnam could take a number of measures to reduce its huge bilateral trade surplus with the US, notably stepping up its purchases of US farm products and clamping down on transshipments from China... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: a pause, not an end to the easing cycle The Bank of Korea today left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.00%, but with the economy struggling and inflation under control, we doubt it will be long before the central bank resumes its easing... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam to remain a regional outperformer in 2025 GDP growth in Vietnam picked up in the fourth quarter of 2024 and we expect another year of strong growth in 2025, with the main support coming from exports. 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
