India Economics Update India, Trump tariffs and friendshoring prospects Friendshoring into India has for the most part been limited to high-end manufactured goods, but broader supply chain reconfiguration into the country could take place if the Trump administration... 21st November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do Trump’s immigration plans mean for EMs? US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to curb immigration and undertake a mass deportation of undocumented migrants could boost labour supply in countries that are the source of migrants. But there... 18th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: more easing likely as inflation falls again With inflation falling back further in October, growth struggling and the property market in the doldrums, the conditions are in place for the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates again soon. We think... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (October) The October PMIs from Asia remained weak and while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The macro & market implications of the US election We held online Drop-In sessions with clients this week to discuss how we factor the US election into our thinking on the macro and market outlook for the US and other parts of the world. This Update... 24th October 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would Trump mean for EM monetary policy? A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia under President Prabowo Having stormed to victory in February’s presidential election, Prabowo Subianto, a former army general and the current defence minister, will take over from Joko Widodo on Sunday (20 th October)... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: further cuts on the way The Bank of Korea today cut interest rates by 25bps (to 3.25%), but tried to dampen speculation that it would cut rates at its final meeting of the year in November. With growth struggling and... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Strong growth in Vietnam to continue GDP growth in Vietnam rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year and we expect growth to remain robust in the near term, helped by strong export demand. 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Deflation fears rising in Thailand Price pressures in Thailand remain very weak and the risks of a damaging period of deflation are growing. This is a big concern in a country with high levels of debt. Despite this, the central bank... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (September) The September PMIs from Asia generally declined from the previous month. And while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: key client questions answered We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s... 1st October 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: fall in inflation opens the door to October cut Inflation in Korea fell back sharply last month, supporting our view that the central bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting in October. 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK set to loosen policy by more than most expect The Bank of Korea left rates on hold again today but sounded very dovish. With policymakers now more confident about achieving their inflation target and domestic demand set to remain weak, we think... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
