President João Lourenço is on course to secure another term following this week’s elections in Angola. With the political backdrop little changed, we think that the economy will revert to its low growth path following an oil-related bump this year. Elsewhere, even as South Africa’s economy stumbles, we think that inflation concerns – further fuelled by the latest reading – will keep the Reserve Bank in hawkish mode. And the latest flare-up of Ethiopia’s simmering internal conflict will probably hold up debt talks, increasing the risk of a disorderly default.
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