US Housing Market Update Ballooning mortgage size not a risk to the market The average home purchase mortgage size has ballooned over the past couple of years, but a concurrent rise in down payments will protect lenders from all but the most severe of house price shocks... 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Household formation stalls as costs mount After seeing strong gains over most of 2021, household formation stalled in the final quarter. A lack of homes for sale and rent, and the soaring cost of both tenures, is constraining household... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key US Housing Market Calls for 2022 A rise in mortgage rates to 4.0% by end-2022, coupled with the 25% rise in house prices seen since mid-2020, will boost mortgage payments as a share of earnings to their highest since mid-2008. That... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Material shortages hit housing completions Shortages of materials and labour over the past year have not stopped builders from starting a lot more single-family homes. But they do appear to have prevented them from finishing them. That implies... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will major coastal city rents continue to get cheaper? The pandemic turbo-charged a move away from major coastal cities, and that drop in demand led to a sharp fall in their rents relative to the national average. But with those moves now made and cities... 9th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Why are pending and existing home sales diverging? An increase in the quality of mortgage borrowers, and record low inventory, are boosting the mortgage closing rate and leading to an increase in the share of pending home sales converted into existing... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update MBS taper won’t widen mortgage spreads The announcement that the Fed will start to taper its purchases of MBS this month is not set to widen mortgage spreads. The cut in demand will be gradual and offset by a moderation in the supply of... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Outlook good for mortgage delinquencies Low mortgage rates, strong earnings growth, plenty of cash savings and a surge in home equity have pushed the early mortgage delinquency rate to a record low this year. Most of those factors will... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Booming home sales fail to raise homeownership rate Despite the exodus from cities and booming home sales last year, the homeownership rate in the third quarter was virtually unchanged from its level prior to the arrival of COVID-19. And with soaring... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Are too many homes being built? Increased demand for larger homes to accommodate working from home and continued migration to the sunbelt will support housing demand even as population growth slows. We therefore don’t think the... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will sales of condos continue to outperform? Sales of condos have been on tear in recent months, with their share in total existing home sales reaching a 14-year high in June. The reopening of cities helps explain that development, and condo... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Fall in first-time buyers will help boost inventory Soaring house prices and tight credit conditions have pushed the first-time buyer share to a joint six-year low which, alongside strong housing starts, has arrested the decline in the for-sale home... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the rise in house prices becoming a concern? It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the... 28th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stimulus cheques help explain house price rebound After beginning to slow at the turn of the year, house price growth has since got a second wind. We suspect the key driver behind that resurgence was the arrival of the third round of stimulus cheques... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update New apartments will start to get larger soon Apartments kept getting smaller in the second quarter of this year, with the median floor space of units falling to under 1,000 sq. ft., the lowest since records began in 1999. That trend seems at... 14th September 2021 · 3 mins read
