The surge in mortgage rates has led to a sharp deterioration in home affordability. But that doesn’t mean the mortgage debt service ratio, the share of disposable income spent on mortgage payments, will also surge from its current low level. Existing borrowers are protected by long-term fixed mortgage rates, and tight credit conditions argue against a large rise in debt-to-income ratios for new buyers. While home sales will take a hit from higher interest rates, the housing market will remain resilient to future shocks.
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