US Housing Market Update What to make of the decline in the jumbo mortgage rate spread? At face value, the decline in the spread of jumbo mortgage interest rates over the rates on conforming loans is one of a number of signs that restrictions on the availability of jumbo mortgages have... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homebuilders benefiting from lower distressed supply The continued drop in the supply of distressed homes on the market is encouraging homebuilders to break ground on more sites. Admittedly, with a substantial overhang of properties still in the shadow... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode ahead of election After the fireworks at the last FOMC meeting in mid-September, when the Fed launched an open-ended QE3 and strengthened its forward-looking guidance on leaving its policy rate at near-zero, the two... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update A closer look at the presidential candidates’ housing plans The election campaign has been frustratingly light on detail with regards to housing policy. Piecing together what we have, however, it looks like anyone expecting either candidates’ housing plan to... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update New-build premium starting to drop The price premium attached to new-builds has fallen over the past six months. Moreover, continued strong investor demand, which is bidding up prices among the lowest tier of existing homes, should see... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update NAHB index overdoing the homebuilding recovery The homebuilding sector is recovering and we expect housing starts to post a decent year-on-year gain both this year and next. Nevertheless, a surge in starts on the scale implied by the NAHB... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How positive is QE3 for housing? Further MBS purchases by the Fed won’t engineer the same drop in mortgage interest rates that earlier rounds did, and with mortgage-dependent buyers playing a relatively marginal role in the housing... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed launches open-ended QE3 The Fed today announced an open-ended QE3 focused on MBS purchases and extended its conditional commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero through mid-2015. There were numerous other tweaks to... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How concerning is the high contract cancellation rate? It’s obviously not good that 15% or more of all contracted home sales aren’t making it through to closing. But to the extent that the increase in the cancellation rate reflects would-be buyers’ desire... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Land values poised to recover The recent rise in residential land values is unlikely to be a one-off. Admittedly, with the level of new home sales still low and house prices gains to remain fairly modest, the pace of the initial... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The housing recovery has not run out of steam already June’s sharp drop in home sales has lead to concerns that the recovery in housing market demand is already stalling. However, while job creation and GDP growth will remain lacklustre, the signs are... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fed stands pat, but offers hint of further action soon Despite acknowledging the evident slowdown in US economic growth, the Fed declined to take any additional action at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting today. It did, however, offer a hint that... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are lower mortgage rates supporting housing demand? News of mortgage rates falling to fresh lows may have become an almost weekly occurrence, but there’s relatively little evidence that this is translating into stronger housing demand among mortgage... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is negative equity a positive for the housing recovery? The reluctance of homeowners who are in negative equity to sell their home and realise a loss is one explanation for the sharp fall in the visible inventory over the past few years. Nevertheless... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is something amiss with seasonally adjusted house prices? Problems with the seasonal adjustment process, caused by the unusually high share of distressed sales in recent years, may be giving a misleading impression of the strength of house prices over the... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed twists again, but no QE3 yet In the end, the Fed opted to extend its Maturity Extension Programme (aka Operation Twist) for another six months, but there was no new large-scale asset purchase programme (QE3). Nevertheless, the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
