It is too early to take the weakening in activity as evidence that the housing recovery is over. The soft numbers could plausibly be the result of the temporary slowdown in job growth, the recent severe weather or even simple measurement error. If so, they will strengthen again soon. Nevertheless, the housing recovery does face significant headwinds, and another month or two of very weak data would trigger a reassessment of our view that housing is in an upswing.
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