US Commercial Property Update Hotel RevPar growth to stall in 2023 Revenues in the hotel sector have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels after being the hardest hit by COVID-19. Although there are few signs yet of momentum slowing, we expect growth in the sector to... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growth downgrades to dent real estate returns in 2023 With a mild recession now built into our forecast, the outlook for commercial real estate performance has worsened. But because this is a relatively small downgrade and it is joined by an expectation... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling rent-frees do not point to an office recovery REIS data show rent-free periods dropped back in the first half of the year, hinting at a tightening market. But with occupiers still rationalising their office portfolios, we expect vacancy to tick... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Charlotte office rental growth to outpace US average We think the Charlotte office market will continue to outperform the US average, as firms capitalise on the city’s affordability and position as a prominent financial district. As such, even though... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Which apartment markets look most overvalued? A forward-looking fair value analysis of the 17 apartment metros that we forecast suggests that Phoenix and the Western markets look most overvalued. This insight underpins the changes to our yield... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Apartment completions set for multi-decade high The jump in multifamily housing starts in the first half of 2022 implies a surge in completions over the next couple of years to a multi-decade high. But while rental demand is now moderating, the... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Global trends point to a more difficult decade ahead Commercial property wasn’t initially hit by the worsening in economic conditions at the turn of the year, but there are now growing signs of anxiety. Not only that, but even if the economic gloom is... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The six major markets will not be the only losers Pandemic-accelerated migration patterns were already driving outperformance in the southern states. But they have also brought the poor performance of weaker markets to the fore. With those structural... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office conversions most likely in high land cost metros The contrast between the strong performance of the apartment sector and the weak performance of offices in the last two years has made office-to-residential conversions more viable, but the numbers... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Stronger signs that office sector distress will grow The large-scale deterioration in office NOIs that we predicted would occur by the end of 2025 appears, on the face of it, to be some way off. But offices are the only sector seeing rising delinquency... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why this price correction will be nothing like the GFC Although we expect a comparable rise in interest rates to that which preceded the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we think the risk of a credit-driven bust in the commercial real estate market is low... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Calling the top for US commercial real estate Indicators that include a recently released investor sentiment survey and a sharp fall in REIT prices since the start of the year support our updated view that capital values will go into reverse in... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property resist the effects of deglobalisation? A recent MSCI article speculated that real estate investment could buck the deglobalisation trend given distinct features of the asset class, though we are not convinced that will bring many benefits... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we’re not too concerned by Amazon’s slowdown The perception of Amazon as a bellwether for the industrial sector made the announcement that it had over-expanded in the last two years a potentially worrying one. But, the fact that Amazon is only... 8th June 2022 · 4 mins read
