US Commercial Property Update Industrial yields could be 50bps below offices by 2022 The industrial sector could see a further increase in its share of investment in the coming quarters thanks to both its own resilience and concerns surrounding the other sectors. Those diverging... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2020) Consensus forecasts for this year have been revised upwards, although the outlook for total returns remains negative. At the same time, the prospects for 2021-22 have been downgraded, but only... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What could the election mean for commercial property? While Joe Biden is currently favourite to win the election, we don’t think the winner’s identity will have a major effect on the economy. We also don’t expect it to substantially alter the prospects... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hopes fading for a real estate bounce next year While we continue to think that this year’s property downturn will be milder than in past cycles, next year’s recovery is looking more fragile. This in part reflects revisions to our economic view... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Does COVID-19 mean the end of real estate’s bull run? Commercial property has outperformed both Treasuries and equities in the last two decades, but the fast-forward of structural change caused by COVID-19 will mean that in the next decade property is... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Remote working fatigue won’t derail long-run adoption Low utilisation of office space supports our expectations of weak short-term demand. And, despite some firms raising concerns over productivity as the current remote work “experiment” continues, there... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will the eviction ban boost rent arrears? In contrast to the surge in mortgage forbearance following the CARES Act, we doubt the recently announced eviction ban will trigger a jump in rental arrears. For those who can afford it, deciding not... 4th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment to stay well below 2019 levels through 2021 Commercial real estate transactions are on course to fall by nearly 50% this year, despite a strong Q1. And with the latest data hinting that our downside scenario is now looking more likely, volumes... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update When it comes to retail, bigger is no longer better Retail malls are set to fare badly in this downturn as Americans avoid enclosed spaces and adopt online shopping practices. But regional and super-regional malls, which were already underperforming... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Scenarios for the effect of remote working on US offices Given uncertainty around the level of adoption of remote-working, change in space allocated per worker and how large any reduction in supply might be, we provide a set of potential scenarios for the... 24th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for office-based employment? We expect office-based employment growth to be faster than total employment growth by around 0.3-0.5% ppts each year over the next decade in the US, the UK and the euro-zone. The coronavirus crisis... 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Mixed signals for retail rents Despite the stronger-than-expected rebound in US high street sales, retail property still faces greater uncertainty than any other commercial sector. Not only does the upsurge in virus cases present a... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Short, sharp, downturn will prevent major LTV breaches Debt covenants generally look less stretched in this downturn than during the GFC. And, although interest cover ratios are relatively low in some REIT sub-sectors, the short, sharp, fall in capital... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS bondholders face mounting risks CMBS delinquencies have risen sharply in recent months, yet we aren’t expecting a repeat of the real estate debt meltdown witnessed in the GFC. However, non-performing loan rates are especially high... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The VIX supports our view of a 35bps rise in NOI yields We expect real estate yields to spike this year due to both a rise in the property risk premium and lower expectations for property income streams. However, breaking down the observed yield gap into... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
