Europe Commercial Property Update The long view of property In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Two more years of underperformance for malls Permanent increases in certain types of online sales will mean that regional and super-regional malls underperform the other retail sub-sectors for at least the next two years. Our forecasts point to... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial REIT pricing points to a forecast upgrade The performance of the major FTSE NAREIT sub-sectors since the end of 2019 appears to suggest that our forecasts for 2021 might be too weak for industrial and too strong for the office and apartments... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update New space brings downgrade to NYC office rents The limited impact of the virus on New York City office construction means that we now expect at least 10mn sq. ft. of office space to be added across 2022-23. This could cause the vacancy rate to... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Life science growth will support Boston offices We expect the boost in demand for life science product will support Boston’s office market. At the same time, office-to-lab conversions will limit the impact of a relatively large development pipeline... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hospitality re-openings key to the outlook this year Leisure and hospitality re-openings were behind the strongest job growth in the Autumn, although national data for December suggest that this could be reversed on the back of renewed lockdowns. With... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hub and spoke model not the future of offices Many commentators are arguing that firms will shift towards a “hub and spoke” model following the pandemic. But we think the arguments for this approach are not as strong as they first seem, and that... 12th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for 2021 For 2021 we highlight five key calls. In particular we expect a year of two halves in which yields initially rise, but end 2021 close to their current levels. Retail and office rent falls will... 6th January 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Pandemic will not be the death of cities The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more... 5th January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural changes threaten the hotel recovery The hotel sector has been hit hardest by the virus, and we expect its recovery will be slower than the other sectors. And, even when vaccines pave the way for an improvement in occupancy, structural... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NYC apartment vacancy rates well-placed to recover As the country begins to return normal next year, the hardest hit apartment markets in the country will recover. New York City looks particularly well-placed to benefit from returning non-office-based... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Revising the peak-to-trough price fall to just 5% Our upcoming Outlook will detail major upgrades to our capital value expectations. Rather than a total fall of around 10% at the all-property level, we now expect the cumulative decline to be just 5%. 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Vaccine will not provide a quick fix for real estate News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term... 2nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Fall in FTB share good news for future rental demand Rising rental vacancy rates in large cities have not been accompanied by a surge in first-time buyers (FTBs). Indeed, 2020 saw the lowest share of FTBs since 1987. That implies many of those rental... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
