US Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS bondholders face mounting risks CMBS delinquencies have risen sharply in recent months, yet we aren’t expecting a repeat of the real estate debt meltdown witnessed in the GFC. However, non-performing loan rates are especially high... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The VIX supports our view of a 35bps rise in NOI yields We expect real estate yields to spike this year due to both a rise in the property risk premium and lower expectations for property income streams. However, breaking down the observed yield gap into... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will a flood of new apartments boost vacancies? The hit to apartment absorption from the coronavirus has occurred at the same time as a large number of new units are set to enter the market. Even with current tenants staying put, that raises the... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will the rental market bounce back? The factors that drove the resurgence in home purchase mortgage demand, including record low mortgage rates, the need for more space and the anticipation of finding a bargain, will not give a similar... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Which metros are best placed for recovery? As US states emerge from lockdown and the worst of the economic crisis appears to be over, thoughts are turning to the recovery. In this, not all parts of the US will be equal. Some insight into the... 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Real estate yields will still hit new lows in this cycle In a world in which central banks and governments are likely to ensure that sovereign bond yields stay low for the long-term, real estate is well-placed to benefit. Therefore, although we expect... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What is REIT sub-sector performance telling us? The partial recovery in REIT prices since their late March trough gives further support to our view that all-property capital value falls will not exceed 10% this year. But, with data centres, single... 29th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2020) Forecasts for all indicators in 2020 have shown a marked deterioration since the interim year-end 2019 forecast published in January. While the consensus sector ranking is in line with our March... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office rent growth outlook downgraded Our initial expectations that office landlords would see only a limited and short-lived fall in occupier demand have given way to a growing likelihood of a more adverse outlook. We have therefore... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update US investors would do well to stay at home In light of the pandemic, our forecasts for developed market commercial property returns have been revised lower. Nevertheless, the relativities between the key markets are broadly unchanged, meaning... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Flexible offices pose a risk to otherwise insulated sector Relative to its performance in the GFC, the office sector should be fairly resolute in this downturn. However, the rapid growth of flexible office space poses a downside risk in some markets. What’s... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Government support will prevent surge in rent arrears Jobless claims have reached 26 million, but by the end of last week the share of apartment tenants making a full or partial rental payment in April was down by just four percentage points compared to... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office foundations look less shaky this time around After a decade of relatively cautious real estate lending and steady, rather than stunning, economic growth, office development has remained fairly subdued. What’s more, for both practical and... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update REIT price falls consistent with a 5%-10% value drop The nearly 40% peak-to-trough fall in US REIT prices points to a fall of around 5%-10% in direct real estate capital values, providing this proves to be a relatively short-lived recession. At a sector... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Winners and losers in retail property Retail property looks most heavily exposed to the disruption from the coronavirus crisis. But not all retail is equal and different sectors will see very different impacts. In our view, neighbourhood... 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
