UK Housing Market Update Rising rates will keep housing in the doldrums The vast majority of existing mortgage borrowers should be well placed to deal with the latest rise in Bank Rate. But a rising cost of borrowing will further constrain demand from new buyers, ensuring... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Landlord sell-off driving fall in instructions The end of the BTL boom has contributed to reduced liquidity in the rental market, making it harder for tenants to find a home. With no sign of a BTL revival in sight, we suspect the current slowdown... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Market slowdown reaches housebuilders The housing market slowdown has finally caught up with housebuilders – with both transactions and house prices in the newbuild sector feeling the pinch. As a result, we expect the current stagnation... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Hard evidence of a landlord sell-off Landlords are trimming their portfolios, reducing the number of privately rented homes in the dwelling stock for the first time in 18 years. For now, there are few signs that these additional sellers... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will transactions fall further? Transactions fell sharply in March. But that was probably down to a combination of weak activity from the end of last year, as well as the recent bout of extreme weather. As a result, we think the... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage rates are still on an upward path The MPC held off from raising Bank Rate in May, suggesting that the next rise in mortgage rates may also have been deferred. But interest rates remain on an upward trajectory, suggesting that today’s... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could housebuilders be doing more? The gap between the number of homes granted planning permission and actual housing starts is growing. But it is labour and materials shortages, as well as a deteriorating housing market backdrop, that... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will mortgage rates spike when the TFS ends? The Term Funding Scheme did little to lower mortgage pricing, and its withdrawal could pass with little discernible effect. But by boosting lenders’ marginal funding costs, the end of the TFS does... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why has the rate rise not been fully passed on? November’s rate rise has not been passed on in full to mortgage borrowers. But with swap rates up by 50bps over the last 9 months and banks’ funding costs rising, future rate hikes should elicit a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has rental growth in London reached a floor? Affordability for renters in the capital is close to a record low. This has already put a dent in tenant demand, causing rents to stagnate last year. There may be some signs that rental supply is... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why is the newbuild premium rising? The rise in the newbuild premium over the past two years appears to be driven by Help-to-Buy and the boost to the demand for new homes it has created. This suggests that the scheme is more generous... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has the official HPI been fixed? Recent changes to the official HPI are a step in the right direction. But the reliability of the provisional estimates of the index, particularly the newbuild component, still leave something to be... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will average mortgage length continue to rise? Slowing house price growth should reduce the upward pressure on average mortgage duration. Yet looking ahead, the share of borrowers taking out longer loans may nonetheless grow, thanks to the... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Have London office to residential conversions peaked? Over the last two years, London has seen a sharp rise in the number of new homes delivered through the conversion of offices to homes. But the sweet spot for such developments seems to have passed... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Another disappointing Budget for housing Any hopes that the Chancellor would come up with a new and innovative approach to boosting the UK’s housing supply in today’s Budget were soundly disappointed. In fact, on the issue of planning reform... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What does the median transaction price tell us? The low interest rate environment has driven buyers to purchase more expensive kinds of homes than they would have done 10 years ago. That helps to explain why buyer leverage is higher than 10 years... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
