UK Housing Market Update A stealthy improvement in valuations Accelerating wage growth has lowered the house price to earnings ratio, even as house prices themselves have continued to climb. Indeed, London has already seen an 11% drop in earnings-adjusted prices... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is owning still better than renting? The era of sustained, rapid house price growth appears to be over. But even so, the cost of owning a home is still favourable compared to renting and is likely to stay that way. That suggests that... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A surge in London rents is coming London’s rental market is shifting to a new phase of adjustment. Low returns and tax changes are driving landlords from the market, while rising wages and low unemployment are supporting tenant demand... 13th August 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Are more young adults moving out? Data from the English Housing Survey suggests that rising tenant demand has come from newly formed households. That could reflect more young adults moving out of their parents’ homes, and supports our... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will the fall in transactions be sustained? Transactions fell sharply in June, but leading indicators suggest that the decline probably won’t be sustained. Indeed, assuming a no deal Brexit is avoided, we think housing transactions will fall by... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Weak PMIs don’t herald housebuilding slump The construction PMI fell sharply in June, but we doubt that housing starts will see a comparable decline. However, with Help-to-Buy due to be pared back, we do expect a small fall in housebuilding... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Could HTB be renewed once more? Despite its flaws, Help-to-Buy has been effective in supporting housing construction. As a result, when the time comes, the government may have little choice but to renew the scheme again. 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the fall in interest margins overstated? Reflecting changes to the composition of their balance sheets, banks are increasingly pricing their loans off deposit funds, rather than short-term wholesale debt. That suggests there is a downside... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would Labour’s policy proposals make a difference? Recent housing proposals from Labour, if enacted, could have major consequences for the housing market. On the plus side, abolishing stamp duty could help to unclog housing transactions. But proposals... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London LTI correction still to come Rather than scale back their borrowing, buyers in London have taken advantage of falling house prices by purchasing better homes. But much of that reflects the continued ultra-low interest rate... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will ending PDRs be bad news for housing supply? Labour intends to end Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) for office to residential conversions. This is a further blow to this scheme, which was already losing momentum, though it is unlikely to make... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will transactions see a Brexit bounce in 2019? Housing market uncertainty may soon start to ease. But a recovery in mortgage approvals or transactions is still unlikely this year. Indeed, given the high level of house prices relative to earnings... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are London new home prices really outperforming? An increase in high-end development and the use of sales incentives have supported recorded new home prices in London. That suggests the observed rise in the new home premium does not signal... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update When will standard variable rates rise? Despite two past rate hikes, lenders’ standard variable mortgage rates are barely higher than in 2017. But we think SVRs will be more responsive to the further hikes likely to come in 2019 and 2020. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will prime central London continue to struggle? Prime central London (PCL) house prices held up better than we expected in 2018, though the underlying trend remained weak. The outlook is unlikely to change in 2019 with economic uncertainty... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would cutting HTB hit first-time buyers? An end to Help-to-Buy would cause only a minor disruption to first-time buyer housing demand. After all, while the scheme has allowed some FTBs to purchase a home with a smaller deposit, the number of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
