UK Housing Market Update Slow market squeezes mortgage lenders Facing weak demand, lenders have cut their interest margins to compete for business, dampening the impact that rate hikes have had on mortgage pricing. But looking ahead, there is limited room for... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are homes being built in the right places? There has been a long-running mismatch between where homes are built, and where people are moving to. The government’s standard method for assessing new housing need targets this discrepancy, and... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is owner occupation at an inflection point? The rise in owner occupation recorded in the English Housing Survey is probably more than just noise. And with a revival in buy-to-let unlikely, that trend looks set to persist, suggesting that owner... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could leasehold reforms raise house prices? Plans to limit the creation of new leaseholds, as well as to cap ground rents, are unlikely to raise newbuild house prices. Meanwhile, developers could see a small hit to their margins, at least in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Remortgaging set to peak in 2019 After growing rapidly in recent years, we think remortgaging will peak in 2019. That view is driven by the shift towards longer duration fixed-rate loans, which has reduced the need for borrowers to... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Housing slowdown to persist in 2019 2019 will be another subdued year for housing, with no meaningful recovery in transactions and house price growth. Housebuilding has likely passed its peak, and will fall gently this year, as weak... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London rental growth at an inflection point Leading indicators suggest that, not long after it started, the dip in London rents will soon end. Indeed, on the back of rising tenant demand and weak supply growth, we think rental growth in the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Even a Brexit deal won’t revive the housing market There is little evidence that Brexit uncertainty has led to pent-up demand in the housing market. So even if a Brexit deal is struck, we see little prospect of a rise in housing transactions next year... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Weak outlook for housing supply Having surged in recent years, office to residential conversions have passed their peak. And conversions of other property types to residential are unlikely to soon make up the difference. Combined... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update No sign of easing in deposit constraints The interest premium on high LTV lending is falling, as banks push to maintain lending flows in the face of weak housing demand. But we don’t expect that to trigger a fresh boom in lending. 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The HTB extension will not give housebuilding a lift The extension of Help-to-Buy provides housebuilders with much needed policy certainty. But with no broader housing market recovery in sight and HTB eligibility to tighten, the industry nonetheless... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage lender caution set to persist Given the risks facing the housing market, the recent rise in lenders’ risk aversion is likely to persist. This supports our view that mortgage approvals will see little growth over the next two years... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would a no deal Brexit trigger a fall in house prices? A no deal Brexit next March will result in economic activity being lower than in our current forecasts. But with rates also likely to be cut, unless that slowdown is far deeper and more lasting than... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Softening demand to hit housebuilding Despite support from Help-to-Buy, newbuild demand appears to have slumped during 2018. In response, some builders will need to cut prices to clear unsold inventory – stalling newbuild house price... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Tracking the landlord sell-off Our analysis of the BTL lending data suggests that, over the last year, the sell-off among landlords has persisted. And given the further reduction in mortgage interest tax relief that is on the way... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London’s price slump spreading? The weakness in London’s housing market has been accompanied by a rise in months of unsold stock. Something similar appears to be happening in the South East and we have trimmed our forecasts as a... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
