UK Housing Market Update Out vote will hit transactions harder than house prices The electorate’s vote to take the UK out the European Union presents another potential headwind to a housing market already labouring under worryingly high prices. But if we are right that the economy... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are investors right to be targeting Manchester? Media reports suggest that Chinese investors are increasingly targeting Manchester residential property. With capital appreciation set to slow markedly over the coming years, that makes sense, as... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update A new official UK house price index A combination of better input data, more detailed outputs and methodological tweaks should, in principle, make the new official UK house price index the definitive measure. But greater coverage and... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How much have shortages held back housebuilding? Materials and labour constraints may have reduced housing starts in England by as much as 5.5% per year since 2013 – equivalent to a cumulative total of around 24,000 homes. But with production... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update A bumpy ride ahead New buyer enquiries in London fell sharply in both March and April, as did house price expectations. With house prices already very high, the data point to a sharp slowdown in price growth and... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has London’s housing market reached a precipice? April’s RICS data showed that London’s new buyer enquiries balance fell to its second lowest level on record. History, however, suggests that on its own, the slump in buyer demand is more likely to... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What do the low level of lettings instructions tell us? The relatively subdued level of new lettings instructions is a reminder that, despite its high profile in recent quarters, BTL lending is only one measure of the health of the private rented sector... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would Brexit raise mortgage rates? It is possible that an out vote in the EU referendum could push up mortgage interest rates. But if it did, we suspect any rise would be modest and that the drivers of that rise would not be those... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The risk to the UK housing market isn’t Brexit An out vote in June’s EU referendum could lead to some short-term softening in activity levels and price pressures in the housing market. It could also present another medium-term headwind to raising... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What is the outlook for bank funding costs? Since the turn of the year, market jitters have made longer-term wholesale bank funding more expensive. But cheap short-term funds may prevent a sharp rise in deposit rates, and therefore keep funding... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the shortage of homes for sale being overstated? There are some grounds to think that survey measures of the number of homes for sale may be being distorted by an increase in the total number of estate agent branches. That said, even after adjusting... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How generous is London Help to Buy? In terms of its direct impact on a buyer’s monthly outlays, London Help to Buy appears to be a significantly more generous subsidy than the original equity loan scheme that it supplements. But in... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How will prime central London perform in 2016? Falling oil prices and growing uncertainty about the global economic outlook point to a lacklustre year for prime central London housing. Indeed, having already slowed sharply, prices in the most... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will 2016 see a sharp correction in house prices? We believe that UK house prices are fundamentally too high. But unless the economy lapses back into recession, triggering a spike in forced selling, a real terms correction, in which prices rise more... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What explains regional differences in rental price growth? Residential rental value growth has accelerated over the course of the year. However, much of this has been driven by the southern regions of England, which in turn seems to fit well with the... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will buy-to-let trigger the next house price crash? Fears that BTL investors will trigger another housing market downturn by selling up en-masse if house prices begin to falter, are at odds with the evidence from the last downturn. Contrary to... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read