UK Housing Market Update How will the high LTV withdrawal hit lending? The recent withdrawal of high LTV products could impede as many as one in four prospective first-time buyers. More broadly, tighter credit conditions reinforce our view that, despite signs of a surge... 26th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Transactions recovery to beat expectations Transactions in April and May have surprised on the upside. What’s more, there are signs that new demand in June has been stronger than expected. Of course, the economic damage from lockdown suggests... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental market isn’t out of the woods The rental market data have been surprisingly resilient. But informal rent cuts may be happening under the radar, while government support has delayed the crunch point for households. As a result, we... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage holiday extension cuts chance of crash The extended mortgage holiday scheme will cushion the blow for financially distressed households. Alongside the other financial support already available, it further reduces the chance of an immediate... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How will eased lockdown affect property development? Easing movement restrictions, combined with government support and strong underlying demand will allow housebuilding to bounce back fairly quickly. But weak occupier demand and falling capital values... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The housing market won’t thaw overnight The ban on home buying activity has been lifted by the government. But a weakened economy, uncertainty and behavioural shifts from the coronavirus will hamper the housing market recovery. By the end... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can lockdown house price data be trusted? Low transactions volumes have made house price indices volatile and inaccurate. Indeed, the ONS has suspended publication of the official UK House Price Index, while the Halifax and Nationwide data... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage holidays surge to two million The data now point to two million households with mortgage holidays. This suggests that the peak in arrears may be much higher than during the GFC. But, with mortgage credit quality and banks’... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update House prices to fall, but not crash Unlike in previous downturns, residential property has not been the root cause this time. Even so, house prices will not escape this recession unscathed. If policy support proves effective, if... 29th April 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Do funding spreads signal a credit crunch? A rising LIBOR OIS spread points to nervousness on interbank funding markets. But for the mortgage market, any future credit crunch is more likely to come from lenders’ concerns about the economy... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What does the housebuilder share slump tell us? The slump in housebuilder share prices reflects the coming collapse in housing sales, which will force builders to shut down production for several months. Indeed, we now expect housing starts to drop... 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Housing market placed on ice In light of government advice to delay housing sales, we now expect a 70% q/q fall in house purchase mortgage approvals and transactions in Q2. Meanwhile, our base case is that low interest rates... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Demand shock to hit rents in 2020 The economic hit from the coronavirus will cool rental demand, while social distancing measures will tip market dynamics in favour of renters. We have downgraded our forecast for rents and now expect... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How low will mortgage interest rates go? Banks will be slow to pass on the latest rate cuts, as the economic turmoil in Q2 puts them on the defensive. But as conditions start to normalise, mortgage interest rates will fall further, reaching... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Housing transactions to fall sharply We now expect the coronavirus to severely limit housing market activity this year, with transactions and house purchase mortgage approvals falling by 40% in Q2. That said, as long as any pick-up in... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Coronavirus likely to cut short the housing recovery Coronavirus fears will cut short the housing market recovery, and we have reduced our forecasts for house price growth in response. What’s more, the risks to the market – particularly housing... 6th March 2020 · 3 mins read
