UK Housing Market Update Could lower for longer rates boost house prices? Lower than expected interest rates would do little to boost house prices. After all, a shallower path for Bank Rate would reflect weaker than expected economic conditions. And in any case, there is... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Our outlook for housing in 2020 Political uncertainty has eased following the election result, but the housing market fundamentals leave little room for a recovery in price growth or transactions in 2020. Combined with waning... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Election hopefuls pull their punches on housing Labour and the Conservatives have pulled their punches on housing policy. Indeed, only Labour’s pledge to boost social housing construction would materially affect the market. As a result, we expect... 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Election 2019: are social housebuilding plans realistic? With housebuilders already close to capacity, the sector will struggle to sustain a further surge in output. As a result, if elected, we think Labour would likely to miss their manifesto commitment to... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Housing completions hit their peak Housing completions have reached their highest level in over three decades. But timelier data on housing starts point to a weakening pipeline of construction. On that basis, we think housing... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Election and Brexit delay leaves outlook in limbo The Brexit extension and general election leaves the housing market outlook even more uncertain than a week ago. What’s more, given the vast distance between the two main political parties’ approach... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Where is housebuilding slowing? London has led the fall in housebuilding, but more recently, construction has fallen sharply in nearly every region. Looking ahead, given continued economic uncertainty, housing starts are on track to... 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage interest rates close to their floor Increased competition among lenders has caused mortgage interest rates to fall in recent months. But funding costs are set to remain pretty stable. That, combined with already tight interest margins... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Would a stamp duty cut boost transactions? Stamp duty changes previously hinted at by the Prime Minister could affect over half of all home buyers, with more expensive homes seeing substantial savings. While the effect on house prices would be... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Has the Halifax index been fixed? After spending much of the last year as an outlier, IHS Markit has fixed the Halifax index. In line with the other main measures, the index is now recording sluggish house price growth. And with the... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is private Right to Buy a good idea? Labour’s proposed Right to Buy scheme for private tenants could have severe unintended consequences. The supply of property available to rent would fall, pushing up rents across the board. Moreover... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A stealthy improvement in valuations Accelerating wage growth has lowered the house price to earnings ratio, even as house prices themselves have continued to climb. Indeed, London has already seen an 11% drop in earnings-adjusted prices... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is owning still better than renting? The era of sustained, rapid house price growth appears to be over. But even so, the cost of owning a home is still favourable compared to renting and is likely to stay that way. That suggests that... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A surge in London rents is coming London’s rental market is shifting to a new phase of adjustment. Low returns and tax changes are driving landlords from the market, while rising wages and low unemployment are supporting tenant demand... 13th August 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Are more young adults moving out? Data from the English Housing Survey suggests that rising tenant demand has come from newly formed households. That could reflect more young adults moving out of their parents’ homes, and supports our... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will the fall in transactions be sustained? Transactions fell sharply in June, but leading indicators suggest that the decline probably won’t be sustained. Indeed, assuming a no deal Brexit is avoided, we think housing transactions will fall by... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read