UK Economics Weekly Sterling’s rise clouds export outlook With last week’s dribble of economic figures hardly setting the pulse racing, it was the pound’s appreciation to its highest level since August 2010 that made the headlines. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP figures may dash recovery optimism Any lingering hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) had either already solved the euro-zone crises or would yet come riding to the rescue with much more decisive action were surely put to bed by... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can consumers continue to support growth? The breakdown of Q4 GDP showed that the greatest support to the economy at the end of last year came from consumer spending. However, the good news on the consumer sector last week was largely... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Enormous fiscal squeeze still lies ahead The furore over the so-called “granny tax” denominated the media’s post-mortem of the Budget, but the big picture is simply that little changed on Wednesday. 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market retains faith in Osborne The recent rise in gilt yields has mainly reflected a pick-up in interest rate expectations and the growing belief that the MPC will soon be done with QE, rather than growing concerns about the health... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Savers’ plight won’t move the MPC Last week marked the third anniversary of official interest rates at just 0.5%. And while there are bound to be both winners and losers, it seems as if no-one is happy about it! 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly King fends off pressure to follow ECB Mervyn King faced tough questioning by the Treasury Committee last week on a couple of issues - and fought back hard. The Governor strongly resisted suggestions that the Bank of England should follow... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor unlikely to start splashing some cash As soon as last week’s figures showed that public sector borrowing is likely to undershoot the OBR’s forecast this year, the Chancellor was inundated with calls for what he should do with this... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in energy prices won't stop inflation falling Mervyn King’s forecast of a “zig-zag” year grabbed the headlines after last week’s Inflation Report, with the Governor warning that June’s extra bank holiday would lead to a bumpy path for output this... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly QE unlikely to be nearing an end Some interpreted the Committee’s decision to increase QE by “only” £50bn last week as a sign that it is close to thinking that it has done enough. However, we think that next week’s Inflation Report... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should the MPC follow the ECB’s example? Last week’s Bank of England figures showed that bank lending to firms and households fell in December, while conditions in bank funding markets have continued to get worse. In contrast, LIBOR spreads... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Contraction unlikely to be just a blip High inflation, rather than ‘temporary factors’ or the euro-zone debt crisis, seems to have been the key driver of the economy’s shift from stagnation to contraction in the fourth quarter. While at... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK’s safe-haven status remains secure The UK’s AAA rating always looked safer than the ratings of those euro-zone countries which have been recently downgraded. The UK might yet be in line for a downgrade at some point. But even then, it... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Pension funds hit by fall in bond yields While the drop in bond yields in recent months has been a generally welcome development, it does have its disadvantages, as highlighted by last week’s figures on company pension schemes. But last week... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery getting back on track? The start of the new year has brought the good news that the UK might just about have managed to avoid falling back into recession at the end of 2011. However, we think that it would be premature to... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What does 2012 hold in store? Consumers finally appear to have opened their wallets in the last few days. However, the big picture is that the economy has ended the year on a pretty weak note. The consensus expects an expansion in... 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
