UK Economics Weekly Sterling back in the spotlight Sterling hit the headlines again last week as it weakened further against the dollar and euro. Meanwhile, last week’s slightly weaker economic data suggested that GDP growth in Q2 might not surge as... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fading price pressures bolster case for stimulus The list of indicators signalling that the recovery is gaining momentum continued to get longer last week. However, the recent news on the inflation outlook – which has perhaps gone relatively... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Reasons mount for Carney to act swiftly A number of developments last week supported our view that Mr Carney will need to give the economy more help. He might even hit the ground running by announcing something at his first meeting this... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in gilt yields supports case for more QE With gilt yields now at their highest level since early 2012, the growing expectation that the Fed will taper its asset purchases could boost the chances of the MPC expanding its own purchases. 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in rate expectations boosts case for guidance The recent rise in market rate expectations highlights why Mark Carney might be keen to give reassurance that interest rates will not rise, even as the economy starts to pick up. 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery looking more like the real thing The positive run of economic news continued last week. Meanwhile, the Labour party’s shift in strategy underlines that fiscal consolidation will remain a defining feature beyond the election. 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the rise in consumer confidence a turning-point? On the face of it, the rise in the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence in May brought further evidence that the economy has finally turned a corner. But even if confidence is now on the up, it may... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by April's inflation figures April’s sharp fall in CPI inflation led some to quickly conclude that this would be enough on its own to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) into action. But a closer look at the figures... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Still plenty of scope for Carney to act In contrast to his usual gloominess at Inflation Report press conferences, Mervyn King bowed out of his final forecasting round on a much chirpier note than usual. But there is still a significant... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report may not impede further action Recent Inflation Reports have presented a pretty gloomy picture as far as the prospects for inflation are concerned. But May’s Report, to be published on Wednesday, should break this bad run. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Selling the banks would be no quick fix Rumours that the Government is gearing up to sell its stakes in the nationalised banks have hit the headlines. Some think that even a loss-making sale would support the Government’s chances of re... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A new dawn? Last week’s revelation that GDP expanded by 0.3% in Q1 will have brought relief to the Chancellor and was a welcome piece of good news following a long period of generally gloomy economic data. But... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Triple dip debate distracts from dismal big picture After what seems like a lifetime of speculation, we will finally get the official verdict this week on whether the UK is in a triple-dip recession or not. We still think that the chances of a further... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are consumers waking up? High street spending has put in a reasonable performance since the start of the year. And there are at least some conditions in place that might allow the momentum in consumer spending to build... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does Japan offer hope for a stagnating UK? Recent developments in Japan, with a new central bank governor and the unleashing of radical monetary policy measures, may offer hope for the UK as Mark Carney’s arrival moves closer. 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 'Unbalanced' growth better than no growth? News last week of a record current account deficit and a sharp drop in the household saving ratio highlighted once again the failure of the UK economy to rebalance away from consumption-led growth... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
