UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report could reinforce drop in rate expectations This will be the fourth Inflation Report in a row that the MPC will be in the uncomfortable position of revising down its GDP growth forecast for 2011 but revising up its inflation forecast. But of... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery, what recovery? Clearly there is a limit to how much weight anyone, the MPC included, should put on the provisional GDP figures. Nonetheless, it would take a pretty substantial upward revision to leave the recovery... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Royal Wedding adds to economic uncertainty At first glance, the marriage of Prince William to Miss Catherine Middleton on Friday 29th April hardly seems to be an important economic issue that merits close examination. Nonetheless, the Royal... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation drop gives MPC some breathing space March’s fall in CPI inflation has given the doves on the MPC some welcome relief in the run-up to the Committee’s crucial May meeting. Granted, it is far too early to proclaim that the inflation... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Q1 disappoint? In theory, GDP has the scope to rise pretty sharply in Q1, by over 1%. But the latest data suggests that the rebound might have been rather more modest than this. 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Slow progress on re-balancing Last week’s news suggested that the UK economy is still making little progress on the rebalancing that is needed to pave the way for a strong and sustainable recovery. 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly OBR unwise to bank on strong demand We think that the Chancellor was probably right to stick pretty rigidly in last week’s Budget to his austerity plans. Nonetheless, we have said it before and we will say it again – the Government... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Budget could further ease rate fears The catastrophic events in Japan have contributed to a reassessment of the likely path of UK interest rates that was already underway before the tragedy struck. Nonetheless, a strong signal from the... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Evidence of consumer slowdown mounting News on consumer spending has been trickling in over the last couple of weeks. While each piece of news has not been significant on its own, put it all together and a pretty convincing picture of a... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Oil price rise comes at a bad time The rise in oil prices has raised fears about the prospects for the economic recovery. Obviously the economy has changed a great deal since the oil price shocks of the 1970s, when sharp oil price... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Who else might join the MPC's hawks? The MPC’s hawks now need the support of just two more members to push through an interest rate rise. Some members (such as Paul Tucker) look more likely to switch sides than others (such as Charlie... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Near-term rate outlook still finely balanced We readily admit that we toyed last week with putting a near-term rate rise into our forecast. But, on balance, we are still not quite convinced that a rate rise is now more likely than not. 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the Inflation Report open the door to a rate hike? This week’s Inflation Report will give us a clearer idea of how close a shave last week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting was. Although the Committee will probably revise down its forecasts... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Optimism about the recovery could prove premature The mood improved considerably after last week’s CIPS/Markit surveys which seemed to suggest that the recovery is back on track again. But, the big picture is that the underlying trend in both the... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Government needs a back-up plan Following last week’s news of a surprise drop in GDP at the end of last year, the wisdom of the Government’s austerity plans has once again been called into question. Accordingly, the coalition would... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling threat will help to keep rates low Much of the pound’s recent strength appears to have reflected the rise in inflation in the UK and the growing expectation that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will soon be forced to raise official... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
