UK Economics Weekly Some encouraging signs on inflation Last week saw a slew of news on inflation which seemed to suggest that, while it is still on course to rise over the next few months, it will drop sharply next year. Indeed, the softness of medium... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC unlikely to wait for long We have long argued that the MPC’s next move would be to loosen monetary policy by restarting quantitative easing (QE). But suggestions that they might do so as soon as last week always looked a bit... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Lack of lending will continue to hinder recovery Last week’s bank lending data underlined the likelihood that ongoing constraints on the supply of lending and credit to business and households will continue to act as a major hindrance on the pace of... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the manufacturing sector past the worst? Hopes were raised last week that the manufacturing recovery, which had been slowing since the spring, might have regained a bit of pace in August. We are not so convinced, however, that the... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rising inflation and unemployment add to consumer misery Last week’s flurry of data releases underlined the mounting pressures on households’ finances. These pressures only look set to intensify in the coming months as inflation rises further and... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK on the ratings hit-list? The downgrade of US sovereign debt and speculation that France might be next has prompted renewed questions over the UK’s own credit standing. While a UK downgrade is not an imminent threat, it is... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Market mayhem sets gloomy backdrop for Inflation Report The mayhem in the markets last week has set a gloomy backdrop for the Bank of England’s Inflation Report published this week. 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly After the weak Q2, a poor start to Q3 Q2’s meagre 0.2% rise in GDP means that the recovery still looks even weaker than that seen after the Great Depression. Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty about how much effect the various... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stress tests underline banking sector fragility Last week started on a relatively poor note for the UK, as the nation’s banks came off rather worse than most others from the European Banking Authority’s recent round of stress tests. Admittedly... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone crisis casts cloud over UK We now expect GDP growth of only 1% this year (compared to our previous forecast of 1.5%). We still expect growth of only 1.5% in 2012 and think that the economy will struggle to expand by more than 2... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Weak Q2 due to more than just temporary factors The activity surveys and the official data we have so far suggest that quarterly GDP growth in Q2 was just 0.2% or 0.3%. Part of this weakness just reflects a number of temporary adverse factors... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tough times on the high street Last week brought news of a string of collapses among well-known retailers. Meanwhile, even the relative winners on the high street are having to work harder to gain sales, with discounting reportedly... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sagging tax receipts put cracks in Plan A Last week’s public finances figures for May brought the clearest signs yet that the weakness of the economy is starting to hinder the Government’s fiscal consolidation efforts. 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK escapes Greek contagion fears The Greek debt crisis escalated last week, but the UK has remained immune from the contagion fears that have spread to other debt-ridden countries in Europe. 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Between a rock and a hard place The Chancellor is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. Yes, the fiscal squeeze is stifling the recovery. But abandoning the consolidation would not guarantee that growth prospects would... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Even the industrial recovery hits the rocks On the face of it, the sharp drop in last week’s manufacturing PMI suggested that output in the sector has actually started to fall again. It is clearly disappointing that even the previously bright... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
