UK Economics Weekly UK unlikely to be first in line for a downgrade Diplomatic relations between the UK and Europe worsened again last week following suggestions by French officials that the ratings agencies should be turning their attention to the UK rather than... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are retailers facing a nightmare before Christmas? The high street has been emitting an unrelenting flow of gloomy news in recent weeks. We are reluctant to conclude just yet that Christmas trading will be a total write-off. Nevertheless, a splurge... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Chancellor’s straitjacket could get tighter We doubt when he created his fiscal framework that the Chancellor ever imagined quite what a straitjacket he was creating for himself. At a time when he is under pressure to slow down his austerity... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Credit easing an important step, but no quick fix Credit easing marks an important step forward in the Government’s efforts to tackle the lack of bank lending. But it is unlikely to transform the near-term outlook for corporate lending. 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone really to blame? The Government was lambasted last week for blaming the UK’s poor economic performance on events in the euro-zone. While the Government might have jumped the gun a bit, it won’t be long before the... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Risks from euro-zone intensify With the euro-zone crisis entering a far more dangerous phase last week, the threats posed to the UK from overseas are looming ever larger. September’s trade data, showing a sharp drop in export... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly From stagnation to contraction At first glance, last week’s activity data painted a mixed picture on the recent health of the UK’s economic recovery. However, a closer inspection suggests that the economy is heading back into... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rebalancing knocked off course On the face of it, hopes that the UK economy is finally ‘rebalancing’ were given a shot in the arm last week with the release of the Economic Accounts and Balance of Payments figures. However, a... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Core inflation should soon start to ease Last week’s consumer prices data for September may have caused some members of the Monetary Policy Committee to swallow hard after their decision to extend the quantitative easing (QE) programme... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the labour market now capitulating? Last week’s data suggested that conditions in the labour market are now deteriorating again at a rapid pace. Rather than being just a blip, we fear that this will mark the beginning of another... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly QE worth a try, but communication is vital Despite the mixed evidence on the effectiveness of the first bout of quantitative easing back in 2009, the MPC is right to give the policy another try. It may nudge the pound lower and could have... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Revisions unlikely to lift the gloom The release of the quarterly national accounts this week seems likely to receive more attention than usual. Not only will the release contain the first expenditure breakdown of Q2 GDP which would... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Weak demand is the real fiscal threat Renewed concerns over the UK’s fiscal position have centred on suggestions that, with less spare capacity in the economy than previously thought, the structural budget deficit is correspondingly... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Some encouraging signs on inflation Last week saw a slew of news on inflation which seemed to suggest that, while it is still on course to rise over the next few months, it will drop sharply next year. Indeed, the softness of medium... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC unlikely to wait for long We have long argued that the MPC’s next move would be to loosen monetary policy by restarting quantitative easing (QE). But suggestions that they might do so as soon as last week always looked a bit... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Lack of lending will continue to hinder recovery Last week’s bank lending data underlined the likelihood that ongoing constraints on the supply of lending and credit to business and households will continue to act as a major hindrance on the pace of... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
