UK Economics Weekly Full nationalisation could be required to boost lending Some people had pointed to the more upbeat surveys as evidence that the Q2 GDP figures were understating the strength of the economy. But the fall in July’s CIPS/Markit surveys diminished this... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Massive revision needed to alter the big picture Last week’s surprisingly poor GDP figures once again called into question the reliability of the data. But the weakness is consistent with the low level of construction orders and the slowdown in the... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Olympics explains part of the employment puzzle A close look at last week’s figures suggests that some of the apparent divergence between the strong employment and weak GDP figures may be explained by the Olympics. Come Games time, more than 100... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Jubilee boost masks weaker picture The effects of early June’s Jubilee celebrations are now starting to come through in the economic data. Last week’s releases provided evidence of the positive effects of the extended holiday, but... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Evidence pointing to a poor Q2 Any chances of the economy escaping a third quarterly contraction have receded in light of the latest surveys and official data. Admittedly, June’s CIPS surveys point to output being flat over the... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation outlook improves further If core inflation falls as we expect, it now looks like inflation could get as low as 0.5% or so in the early part of next year. 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Encouraging news on core inflation May’s inflation figures should help to strengthen the case for the minority pushing for more QE. Although core inflation rose from 2.1% to 2.2%, this primarily reflected base effects. Our seasonally... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will throwing money at the banks help? The measures announced at Thursday’s Mansion House dinner are a bold attempt to get credit flowing through the economy again. Most crucially, by linking the provision of cheap funds to new lending... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly One swallow does not a summer make In the midst of a generally gloomy economic situation, the last week has seen a string of fairly positive domestic news. But we doubt that May’s resilient picture will last. 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A 'knees-up' for the economy? The Queen’s Diamond Jubilee celebrations from 2nd to 5th June offer some escape from the recent bad news, and may boost consumer spirits and spending. But the additional bank holiday is likely to... 4th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Too early to declare victory over core inflation Last week’s figures brought some relief on the inflation front, with core inflation dropping from 2.5% to 2.1%. We would not declare victory over inflation just yet. Nonetheless, with pay growth so... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone threat intensifies Differences in foreclosure procedures will be one determinant of when State-level housing markets improve. While the national housing market is in the early stages of a recovery, many of the judicial... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report to show MPC in wait and see mode The inflation profile in Wednesday's Inflation Report probably won’t look much different from February’s Report. This would appear to support the consensus expectation that the QE programme is now as... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A tricky decision for the MPC Last week’s weak bank lending figures, as well as the softer business surveys for April, have intensified the dilemma facing the MPC ahead of its policy decision on Thursday. For now, we think that... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Worst recovery for 100 years Although there are doubts over the reliability of the Q1 GDP figure, it would take a huge revision to change the woeful nature of this recovery. And regardless of whether the ONS figures are right or... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC wrong to dismiss weak output figures This week’s preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP will finally answer the question of whether the UK has slipped back into technical recession. It will be a close-run thing as to whether or not the data show... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
