UK Economics Weekly Jobs market should weather economic slowdown well The extent of any post-referendum slowdown in consumer spending will hinge crucially on developments in the labour market. While last week’s labour market figures showed little sign of a Brexit impact... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did the MPC jump the gun in August? The resilience of the recent data has prompted some commentators to question whether the MPC was wrong to cut Bank Rate to 0.25% and announce new gilt purchases of £60bn and corporate bond purchases... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling already supporting the economy While there are already signs of the inflationary impact of the fall in sterling starting to make its way through the supply chain, the drop appears to be providing some support to the economy. Indeed... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Taking stock of data for the post-referendum period It has been two months since the UK voted to leave the EU and you could be forgiven for being puzzled by the recent data on the economy. After all, different sets of figures released have given... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the jobs recovery about to lose its vigour? On the face of it, last week’s labour market figures provided some further welcome signs that the immediate impact of the Brexit vote on the economy might not be quite as bad as many had feared. The... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have consumers shrugged off Brexit? Last week’s figures suggested that households haven’t been ruffled much by the leave vote. Admittedly, we are wary about reading too much into these relatively upbeat figures. Temporary factors such... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the MPC’s bazooka hit the target? While the bigger-than-expected package of measures announced by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its August policy meeting is likely to have at least some beneficial effects on the UK economy... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How could fiscal policy be reset? We think new Chancellor Philip Hammond’s fiscal policy “reset” resulting from Brexit will involve some discretionary loosening. This will come on top of automatic stabilisers which will lower receipts... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly One month after the referendum The economy has clearly taken a hit from the vote to leave the EU last month. Granted, sales values have held up well according to John Lewis, and the latest Bank of England Agents’ Scores were... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The MPC raises the stakes The Monetary Policy Committee’s surprise decision to leave policy on hold at Thursday’s meeting appears primarily to have reflected a desire to combine its remaining policy ammunition into a... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A Goldilocks depreciation? The fall in the pound since the EU vote has been widely presented as a negative development. Not only is it being seen as a general indicator of Brexit vote fall-out, but many forecasters appear to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How far will inflation rise? Although the slide in the trade-weighted sterling index of a little below 10% since the referendum result will give exporters a much-needed boost to their competitiveness, it will also lift the prices... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What will the policymakers do? Following the vote for a Brexit, a considerable amount of uncertainty hangs over the UK, which is likely to weigh on activity in the short term. However, we think that the near-term hit to the economy... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit would still shock markets, despite shift in polls While the main talking point in recent days has been “Leave” taking the lead in EU referendum opinion polls, it appears that markets are still far from fully pricing in a Brexit. This suggests that... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Record-low gilt yields reflect global factors Last week’s fall in gilt yields to a record low probably has more to do with global concerns than a rise in the probability of a Brexit . Once the turmoil surrounding the immediate aftermath of the EU... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Housing market to cool regardless of Brexit vote While concerns about the overvaluation of UK housing are nothing new, recent signs that the market is cooling has led some to proclaim that we are on the cusp of a house price crash. Although we don’t... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
