UK Economics Weekly Will consumers remain resilient? Given that there have been few signs in the hard data yet of a rebalancing towards the external and corporate sectors, the fate of the economy – in the near term at least – still seems to rest in the... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is an early lift-off from the MPC now off the cards? The surprisingly-dovish reaction of sterling to the Bank of England’s August Inflation Report has led some commentators to conclude that the prospect of an interest rate hike this year is now dead and... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we no longer trust the business surveys? Once again the business surveys provided an over-optimistic reading of the economy’s health in the second quarter. This raises questions about their usefulness as a leading indicator, and suggests... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation’s dip should keep the MPC hawks at bay The markets are probably right to conclude that June’s drop in inflation, from 2.9% to 2.6%, has reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate rise. Admittedly, the dip in inflation needn’t rule out a... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling supporting tourism sector While the fall in the pound has yet to provide a significant boost to overall net trade, it has already started to support the tourism sector. And we think that net tourism spending will provide a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Still on track for a stronger Q2 Despite the dip in this week’s Markit/CIPS PMI surveys for June, they still provided some reassurance that growth will pick-up in Q2. But this week’s hard data for the industrial and construction... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is investment now driving the MPC? Amidst the rather confusing signals given by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and colleagues in recent weeks, one message to become clearer is an apparent increased focus on the question of... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the rift between MPC members growing? After a surprisingly large split in the vote at June’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, two speeches this week provided further signs of a growing rift on the Committee. Indeed, the fact that Andy... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC hawks to remain in the minority for a while yet This week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee came close to voting to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, we saw claims that austerity is now over. It is remarkable therefore that... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will political uncertainty weigh on the economy? There are reasons why the political uncertainty triggered by the hung Parliament result won’t weigh too heavily on GDP growth. After all, the UK economy has proved resilient to recent bouts of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Markets bank on comfortable Conservative win Despite the recent narrowing in the opinion polls, markets still seem to be banking on a sizeable Conservative majority in Thursday’s General Election. Any different outcome could therefore have a... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will growth rebound? April’s business surveys provide hope that GDP growth will rebound in Q2 from the sharp slowdown in Q1 confirmed in this week’s official figures. Indeed, the Markit/CIPS PMI is now consistent with... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Do voters have a real fiscal choice this time? The release of party manifestos this week highlighted that, unlike in recent elections, the two main parties offer voters a real fiscal choice this time. Labour would borrow significantly more than... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the housing market heading for a major downturn? This week’s news brought further signs that the housing market is cooling and could suggest that we are on the cusp of a house price slump. But we doubt that the various indications of softness... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 1992 or 2008? Updated Recent news on the economy might suggest that the effects of the pound’s post-referendum depreciation will be closer to those seen after the pound’s fall in 2008 – which raised inflation and squeezed... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does more need to be done to bring the deficit down? The large fall in public borrowing in the 2016-17 fiscal year could suggest that the process of deficit reduction is almost complete and that the Conservatives can keep their pledge not to raise the... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
