UK Economics Weekly Is the Chancellor’s budget surplus law a step too far? Last week’s announcement by the Chancellor that he intends to pass a law to require all future governments to run a budget surplus “in normal times” engendered more accusations that he is playing... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What scope does Osborne have to smooth the cuts? Given the rollercoaster profile for government spending inherited from the coalition, there is clear scope for the Government to smooth the fiscal consolidation more evenly over this parliament... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Encouraging signs beneath Q1 weakness Last week ended with a general sense of relative pessimism, following the lack of the expected upgrade to Q1’s GDP figure and the news that net trade was a big drag on the economy. But we are not too... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is that it for deflation? News that the UK economy finally experienced deflation in April is to be cheered – it is emphatically of the ‘good’ sort, driven by cheaper commodity prices rather than weaker demand. Looking ahead... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market ‘rout’ poses little threat to economy The recent sharp rise in government bond yields, most pronounced at the long end, has fuelled concerns about its potential adverse impact on the economy. After all, since it has not been accompanied... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tory majority brings more clarity to fiscal outlook The Tories’ outright majority indicates that the economy is clearly heading for a major re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze next year. This will represent only the first step towards their... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery should endure political uncertainty With a hung parliament appearing overwhelming likely, Thursday’s general election looks set to be followed by days, if not weeks, of political horse-trading, and whatever government is finally formed... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grexit risks underline need for MPC caution Although all eyes are on the general election due to take place in less than a fortnight, developments across the Channel have the potential to be just as important an influence on the UK economy in... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does the economic outlook hinge on who wins? The fiscal rules proposed by the Conservative and Labour parties in their manifestos last week suggested that the latter could borrow an extra £130bn more than the Tories over the next five years if... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we trust the upbeat business surveys? The last few weeks have seen mixed messages on the health of the economic recovery, with the upbeat tone of the business surveys contrasting with initial official estimates of output in the first two... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Current account cloud casting shadow over recovery Last week’s National Accounts showed that the economic recovery had plenty of wind in its sails in the fourth quarter. However, there remains one cloud hanging over the recovery which has yet to be... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Zero inflation doesn’t boost case for rate cut For a country that has spent much of its recent history battling high inflation, last week’s data showing that inflation hit zero in February was something of a watershed moment. However, we don’t... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is there light at the end of the austerity tunnel? In a Budget devoid of significant pre-election giveaways or major revisions to the economic forecasts, the most important changes were to the spending plans. While the Chancellor stuck to his overall... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the pound riding for a fall? Sterling remains vulnerable to concerns about a hung parliament, EU exit and the current account deficit. But it is hard to tell when these concerns will bite, if they will at all. And in the meantime... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Without tighter rules, migration to stay strong We doubt that the recent strength in net migration will be temporary. The recent rise has been primarily driven by increased immigration from Europe, reflecting its weak economy compared to the UK and... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is a recovery in exports finally underway? One feature that the recovery has been lacking for a long time is a pick-up in exports. But last week’s GDP figures offered some encouragement that the much-anticipated rebalancing of the economy is... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
