UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Hammond now “reset” fiscal policy? By freeing the Government from its previous manifesto commitments, the snap general election on June 8th could give the Chancellor Phillip Hammond (if he is still in the position) more elbow room to... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Squeeze on real incomes won’t be too severe After two-and-a-half years of rising real wages, this week’s inflation and labour market figures confirmed that the pay squeeze has returned. And, with inflation rising faster than expected, some... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much did growth slow in Q1? The survey data have provided evidence that the slowdown in Q1 has not been too stark. And although the official figures have been weak in Q1 so far, temporary factors have been at play suggesting... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are consumers’ finances healthy as Brexit begins? Last week’s historic triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty marks the beginning of a lengthy and complex process of leaving the EU. The extent to which this event has a near-term impact on the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have we underestimated sterling’s inflation impact? CPI inflation surprised on the upside again last week, largely due to a few components that tend to be more responsive to exchange rate movements. This begs the question of whether we (and many others... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC right to turn hawkish? While it came as no surprise that the US Federal Reserve pressed ahead and raised interest rates last week, markets were given a jolt by an unexpected split on the UK Monetary Policy Committee, with... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did the Chancellor ease back on the fiscal squeeze? While the Spring Budget has generated a lot of political controversy, it was a fairly dull affair from a macroeconomic perspective. Even if the policy to raise National Insurance Contributions on the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of higher costs will firms absorb? Companies’ margins are starting to bear the brunt of the exchange-rate induced rise in costs. And given the deterioration in consumer confidence, slower employment growth and the strong competitive... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Headline GDP figures not quite what they seem On the face of it, last week’s GDP figures were encouraging. After all, they indicated that the economy accelerated at the end of last year, and suggested that the post-referendum drop in the pound is... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can wage growth keep up with rising inflation? Last week’s labour market and inflation figures have fueled concerns that the impact of rising inflation on real earnings will cause a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth. Indeed, rising... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Future looks brighter for manufacturing A robust rise in manufacturing activity at the end of 2016 and in the output balance of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey have raised hopes that the sector is getting back onto its feet. Admittedly... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Dec.) Today’s economic activity data added to other evidence suggesting that the economy maintained a significant amount of momentum at the end of 2016 and implies that GDP growth is becoming more balanced. 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Where do the risks to the MPC’s forecasts lie? Last week’s Inflation Report saw the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seemingly abandon “Project Fear” in favour of “Project Optimism”. Indeed, the MPC seemed upbeat on growth prospects and relaxed... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Q4’s growth deals another blow to project fear The solid 0.6% expansion in UK GDP in the fourth quarter of last year provided further evidence that the vote to leave the European Union has so far had little discernible adverse effect on the UK... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rising wage growth won’t worry the MPC While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has stated that it is willing to look through a period of exchange-rate driven above-target inflation, one of its conditions is that there are no significant... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we worry about a consumer boom? The recent strong growth of unsecured household borrowing has prompted concerns that, far from snapping their wallets shut in response to Brexit worries, UK consumers have embarked on another credit... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
